Arthur Hayes has a clear message for impatient Bitcoin holders: slow down. The BitMEX co-founder warns that expecting BTC to skyrocket overnight is a recipe for disaster. He points out that those who bought Bitcoin two, three, or even ten years ago are the real winners today. Meanwhile, many who entered the market only months ago are frustrated that Bitcoin isn’t trading at $150,000 yet. Hayes stresses that chasing quick gains, like dreaming of a Lamborghini after one purchase, leads to liquidation, not riches. Instead, he urges investors to zoom out and recognize Bitcoin’s long-term performance, which has delivered an average annualized return of more than 80% over the last decade.
Arthur Hayes Sees the Bull Cycle Extending to 2026
According to Hayes, we’re not at the end of the bull market. In fact, he believes Bitcoin is still in the middle of this cycle. His bold prediction: the bull cycle could stretch into 2026. The reason lies with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Hayes argues that rate cuts by the Fed will inject fresh liquidity into markets, and much of it will flow into BTC. He also sees political pressure mounting on the Fed to ease monetary policy, which could further fuel the rally. For Hayes, more money printing is inevitable—and every dollar created makes Bitcoin more valuable due to its fixed supply.
FED Policy and the Path of BTC
The Federal Reserve plays a starring role in Hayes’ outlook. He expects a series of rate cuts beginning soon, possibly lasting until mid-2026. Lower rates mean cheaper credit, more money sloshing around the system, and ultimately, a surge of capital into risk assets like Bitcoin. Hayes believes this liquidity wave could push BTC far higher than skeptics think. Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin has a capped supply, making it a natural hedge against endless printing. In his view, the macro environment, not short-term charts, will decide when this bull run ends. That’s why he continues to see upside for BTC even as some traders call for a peak.
Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin’s “Limbo” Against Gold and Stocks
Some critics argue that Bitcoin looks weak compared to the S&P 500 and gold, both of which hit record highs recently. Hayes disagrees. He calls this a flawed way of thinking, noting that BTC has crushed every other asset when measured over the long run. For example, deflating stocks by gold shows they still haven’t recovered fully from the 2008 crash. But when you compare them to Bitcoin, the difference is off the charts. Hayes says BTC’s performance is “so ridiculous” that it dwarfs everything else. Today, Bitcoin may feel stuck in limbo under its $124,000 peak, but Hayes insists the bigger picture proves BTC’s unmatched strength.
The Road Ahead: Bull Cycle Momentum Builds
Looking forward, Hayes sees little reason to panic. Bitcoin’s sideways moves are normal in the middle of a bull cycle. With the Fed preparing to cut rates, governments ready to print, and global liquidity rising, the setup is bullish for BTC. Hayes even suggests the current frustrations are only temporary pauses before the next surge. He has projected Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end if conditions align. Whether that bold target hits or not, his main point stands: patience pays in crypto. The real winners will be those who hold through the noise, not those who expect instant Lamborghinis.